The 2016 election is still months away, but Hillary Clinton is most likely going to win it.American politics is like “A Game of Thrones” and the strongest house will sit atop the Iron Throne.However,CONFIDENCE OF LEAD The probability that Clinton leads Trump is 99%.
Here is really matters for understanding why Hillary Clinton cannot lose.To come to this conclusion you first have to figure out who is going to be the nominee of each party and then who will win the general election.
Americans elect their president not directly, but through the Electoral College wherein each state has votes basically in proportion to their population. This is why micro-factions of this party or that, or candidate’s attributes of this ticket or that, don’t really matter as much as people think. For the most part, if a candidate wins a majority in a state, they get all of that state’s votes in the Electoral College, and states tend to vote consistently along party lines. A majority of votes in the Electoral College is 270.
Once a candidate wins enough states to win 270 votes, they’re the President-Elect. Pretty simple.
When you understand this, it’s easy to see why the Democrats have such an enormous advantage. There are a large number of states that have voted for the democrat candidate in four out of the last four elections. They’ll basically vote for any competent Democrat that gets the nomination (and no one seriously argues that it won’t be Hillary). Without trying very hard, the Democrat start off with 242 of the 270 they need.
Then when you look at the next bunch of states that merely lean democrat, because they’ve voted for democrats in 3 out of the last 4 elections, it’s hard to argue that they won’t do so again in 2016: 1) the one republican that won Iowa did by less than 1%; 2) New Hampshire voted for a democrat senator (national issues) and governor (local issues) by greater than 3.5% in 2014; 3) New Mexico voted for President Obama by an average of 12% in ’08 and ’12, and the democrat senator won by 11% in 2014.
This brings the Democrats to 257. Where are they going to get 13 more votes?
The first is the Democratic nominee: as of February 24, 2016, the choices are
Clinton has an 80% chance of winning the nomination over Sanders currently.
The Republican side is getting increasingly clear. There are three viable candidates
Trump has 75% chance of winner, with Rubio having a 20% and Cruz having the balance of 5%.
The likely match ups are
Clinton-Trump — 60% chance of the matchup occurring
There is a 80% chance that Clinton wins this match up. Trump’s immigration stand is basically going to fry him in the general election.
Clinton-Rubio — 4% chance of the matchup occurring
There is 75% chance that Clinton wins this. The biggest fear is apathy and losing some of the Hispanic vote.
Trump-Sanders — 15% chance of the matchup occurring
There is 60% chance that Trump wins this because Trump is much better at the air war and Sanders won’t have the deep pockets of Clinton.
Clinton-Cruz — 16% chance of the matchup occurring
There is 100% chance Clinton wins this.
Rubio-Sanders — 1% chance of the matchup occurring
There is 50% chance for either candidate.
Cruz-Sanders — 4% chance of the matchup occurring
There is 75% chance that Sanders wins this.
This means that the likely outcomes are
Hillary Clinton with 67% chance of winning
Donald Trump with 21% chance of winning
Bernie Sanders with 9.5% chance of winning
Marco Rubio with 1.5% chance of winning
Ted Cruz with 1.0% chance of winning
As per one of the standard polling Estimate ,very fair probabilities are in Hillary Clinton’s favour:
Hillary Clinton – 47.2%
Donald Trump – 38.3%
And rest of the mass is undecided.
- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/photo/51428181.cms (image)
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